Posted by
David Willis on Sunday, September 14, 2008 7:22:30 PM
There are some that take every day as it comes. We don't plan, we don't look ahead, we don't forecast. We are too busy in our daily lives to consider, at length, the repercussions stemming from our current game-plan, much less the game-plan our leaders are presenting to us.
When you study economics, or business, or finance - this kind of behavior isn't such a good idea. We now have two presidential nominees that have the same essential outlook for the country. Tax more, spend more, increase the size and scope of the federal government.
Some of us have been crying out for years that the economic sky is falling, but things have never really materialized, our daily lives haven't been affected, it hasn't hit us in the wallet yet.
Until now. Gas prices and the falling dollar are bashing our economy. The housing market has shed trillions of dollars in equity. On the horizon, the two most liberal candidates fro president ever put "against" each other are vying for our attention - battling it out to spend more than the other guy.
If you think the current state of things is bad, lets have a peek at our future.
I call the current outlook "The Perfect Storm."
Currently the federal government spends about three trillion dollars a year. The average amount that they overspend is 400-500 billion. This has given us a total national debt of 9.4 trillion dollars. The amount we spend on interest ONLY for this debt is 406 billion dollars per year.
Stop the boat right now - pay off the debt and we have an extra 406 billion dollars a year massive for "nanny state" entitlements.
But the boat shows no signs of stopping. It look as though it is going to be steered right into the storm. How bad is the storm? Maybe we can weather it? Maybe we don't need to change course.....
Lets just assume that Barrack Obama and John McCain will continue what they have always done - doing absolutely nothing to stymie the growth of entitlements, pledging endless resources to environmentalism and education and health care reform.
Lets also put a sort of "endpoint" to this chaos - in other words, lets estimate when the boat is going to hit the storm....
Just for arbitrary and capricious reasons - lets say 2020 - the approximate time that the social security system will be in debt to the tune of another 18 trillion dollars.
Between now and then Obama's "college education is a birthright" will cost us about 1.5 trillion. Universal healthcare about 6 trillion. His "other" proposals about one trillion. The current Lieberman-Warner environmental legislation is going to hit the economy for about 1.5 trillion.
As the value of the dollar falls, those that hold our debt will increase the interest rate they demand. This will cost us about 2 trillion dollars in the next 12 years. The "acceleration" of deficit spending - in other words how much more we will have to spend over what our revenue is to make up for all this - is going to cost us about 4 trillion above and beyond the "natural rate" of 400-500 billion the government already overspends.
Are you getting scared yet?
We asked before "how bad is the storm going to be?" Lets see.....
Look for a magic number in 2020 of about 37 trillion in debt. The interest alone on that debt will be about 2.2 trillion per year. If revenues increase along current and historical trends - the government should be taking in about 3 trillion by 2020.
So, now we take in 2.5 trillion and our interest on the debt is 406 billion - so we have 2.1 trillion for "all the stuff we need" and then we add in another 400-500 billion in new debt on top of that.
Compare that, again, to 2020. We will be taking in 3 trillion and spending 2.2 trillion on the interest. So, we will have about 800 billion for "all the stuff we need."
Do you think the federal government or the goons that we allow to run it will be satisfied with spending 1.3 trillion dollars LESS on "all the stuff we need?"
Scared yet?
The financial disaster in the making is only the START of the problems. This massive debt - and the repercussions from it - will continue to accelerate from now until the "end."
But what is the end? Economic hard times? Another 1930's style Stock Market crash?
All that and worse.
The reason I call this scenario "The Perfect Storm" is that it embodies the atmosphere that MUST be present in order to change the American way of life. We will not vote away our rights and freedoms in good times. Even when we hit a bad bump in the road, we generally don't panic - we forge ahead.
But let me tell you, if it all goes bad, if it all collapses, if it all comes crumbling down - everyday Americans will flock to the polls and VOTE their economic and constitutional freedoms away in a heartbeat. A savior will arise - someone who will promise to save us from it all if only we are willing to "sacrifice."
In other words "The Perfect Storm" is EXACTLY the situation that the Progressive left in this country - and the world - has been dreaming about ever since they first conceived the defeat of the capitalist system.
You see, they can't win through rational arguments. They don't often pull off political coups. But when times are bad - progressive-left legislation nibbles at the heels of our free markets. When times are good again, the progressive-left legislation is left in place and forgotten about - it is ignored like a cancer in remission.
Little by little though, with constant pressure and absolute faith in their reasoning and their cause, for a hundred years this Perfect Storm has been gathering.
I see John McCain and Barrack Obama steering us right into this storm. In fact I see them on the bridge yelling "full steam ahead!"
Who is going to stand up and stop this insanity?
I keep hearing from the "talking heads" on the right that "a third party isn't the answer." In fact, I am about sick and tired of ALL the "right-wing" talkers jibber-jabbering about it all day long but never actually DOING anything about it. "Right-wing" radio alone has the ears of about 30 million Americans. Conservatives make up about 40% of America and "Independants" which is a phrase that means "I'm a democrat but I hate these lefties around me - please - oh - please give me a Reaganesque figure to vote for" make up about 30% of Americans.
This is a CRUSHING majority. Yet, it keeps getting WORSE. How can this be?
I have seen the Republicans and Democrats in become so similar that the candidates running for president this year are economically indistinguishable from one another.
There is only one solution - a third party. It can't be some "old" third party run by kooks either. The Libertarians have some good ideas but they are also the worlds home for conspiracy freaks and "legalize drugs" nutballs.
A third party based on simple economic conservatism and moderate-conservative personal values is the answer. In other words they have to reflect the 70% ruling majority. This would be a party that Reagan could be part of, this could be a party that Gingrich reinvented in 1992.
It is NOT the party that currently houses John McCain and it is NOT the party that Barrack Obama calls home. Against a third party candidate capable of getting his message across, these two lightweights would be steamrolled.
The question is what are YOU going to do about it?
There is one more factor you must consider in all of this. Timeliness.
The American economy and the federal government bureaucracy is not a 24-foot pleasure craft. It can't turn on a dime. Once it is on course it will take years, if not decades to be able to steer away from an iceberg - much less "The Perfect Storm."
So, when is the absolute, positive "no going back" deadline. In other words when is the latest we can afford to START turning the ship away from The Perfect Storm.
Answer 2012.
The damage that Obama or McCain is going to do between now and then might even be too catastrophic to fix by then.
In 2001, I wrote an article that spelled out where we would be in 2008. I told you all that we would have a collapsed Republican party, indistinguishable from the Democrats. I told you all that it would be date that "the planets would align" for a third party to come and steal about 60% of Democrats and about 80% of Republicans - forging a ruling majority and forever consigning the Dems and Reps to minority status.
What I said then has come to be. But no third party, no savior, no white knight has come. Even though the times are practically SCREAMING for it.
Well, I suppose thats how it goes. I can predict it - but I can't fix it - at least not alone.
Are you going to do anything about it?